Q4 doesn’t have to feel like flying blind

With the late-year rush, your shipping costs can blow up faster than your inbox. The upside: you can keep it under control. Here’s how:

1.       Track your surcharges real-time

Carriers are stacking on more fees this year than ever. For example, FedEx/UPS ground-delivery rates are 31 % above the January 2018 baseline in Q3 2025, with even more hikes expected in Q4 for peak season. (Supply Chain Dive) We found a breakdown of 2025 peak-season surcharges: e.g., from late Nov to Dec, stating that a single oversized package via FedEx could carry an extra ~$108.50 in oversize surcharge. (Saltbox)

Tip: Build a simple “surcharge tracker” sheet/spreadsheet that logs each extra fee (fuel, volume, residential, oversize) by carrier now. Use that to forecast how much your upcoming holiday shipments might cost before you hit full volume.

2.       Do a mini-audit of carrier invoices before you’re swamped

Mistakes aren’t rare, in fact: “Carrier billing errors are more common than most businesses realize.” (Avantiico) Hidden fees eat 15–25 % more than base rates for many small businesses (via address corrections, dimensional weight oddities, etc). (Peak Advisers)

Tip: Pick one month (say November or an earlier Q4 week) and review all shipping invoices. Check that each charge lines up with your contract or published rates. Flag any surprises or unexplained surcharges and keep an “issues log” you can push back on later.  Do the same thing now using last week's invoices 10/19-10/25.  Review and compare to see what’s new, unusual, and unnecessary.

3.       Be nimble: shift volume or packaging instead of just accepting everything

With many carriers raising demands and tightening conditions, you can’t be rigid. For instance: Large-package surcharges for United Parcel Service climbed to as high as ~$540 during the busiest weeks. (intelligentaudit.com) Shipping experts say optimizing packaging (smaller dimensions, smarter bundles) is among the most effective tactics. (Inbound Logistics)

Tip: Review your packaging now: Are you shipping the same volume but could combine two items into one box or redesign dimensions to avoid “oversize”? Check whether a regional carrier (with lower surcharges) is viable for some shipments rather than the national ones.

Our recommendation: Focus on one firm action now: create the surcharge tracker from your weekly invoices (step 1). Once you've got the data in front of you, the other two steps get easier (audit & optimization).

Without that visibility, you’re flying blind.